In each Presidential election cycle, only a handful of “swing” (or “battleground”) states receive the bulk of candidates’ — and the media’s — attention. This creates a disincentive to vote in the non-swing states.
2012 Voter Turnout
In the 2012 Presidential election, fewer voters cast ballots in the non-swing states, compared to the swing states. This difference represents over 10.2 million votes. Voters in 42 non-swing states (including the District of Columbia) actually had a disincentive to cast a ballot.
In 2012, the swing states were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Data source: McDonald, Michael P. “2012 November General Election Turnout Rates,” United States Election Project. Data accessed February 2021.
2016 Voter Turnout
In the 2016 Presidential election, fewer voters cast ballots in the non-swing states, compared to the swing states. This difference represents over 12.7million votes. Voters in 40 non-swing states (including the District of Columbia) once again had a disincentive to cast a ballot.
In 2016, the swing states were Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Data source: McDonald, Michael P. “2016 November General Election Turnout Rates,” United States Election Project. Data accessed February 2021.
Due to the Electoral College’s “winner-take-all” mechanism, voters in rural areas in states with large metropolitan areas are typically disenfranchised.
In California, votes cast in the populous areas of the state, such as Los Angeles, the Bay Area, and San Diego almost always supersede votes cast in the rural and agricultural portions of the state.
In Illinois, downstate votes are almost always superseded by votes cast in metropolitan Chicago.
In New York, votes that are cast upstate are almost always superseded by votes cast in New York City and Long Island.
In Northern Virginia, votes in the burgeoning suburbs of Washington, D.C. increasingly supersede votes cast in the remaining sections of the state.
Seventy percent (70%) of the U.S. electorate is ignored by the Presidential candidates.
Over 90% of campaign visits were to the swing states.
Each campaign cycle, the electorate in only a handful of states is considered competitive. These “swing states” — representing only 30% of the U.S. population — receive the vast majority of the candidates’ attention. Most voters (and the issues affecting them) are completely ignored.
In 2020, the swing states were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Data source: Fair Vote.org, “2020 Presidential Candidate General Election Events Tracker.” Biden-Harris and Trump-Pence campaign events were tallied August 28 - November 3, 2020.
Most television ad spending was in the swing states.
In 2020, the Presidential candidates spent an astonishing $1.5 billion on television ads. Two-thirds of this amount (through mid-October 2020) was spent in media markets in the 11 swing states.
Data sources: N. Corasaniti, W. Cai, and D. Lu. “Flush With Cash, Biden Eclipses Trump in War for the Airwaves,” The New York Times, October 17, 2020.
D. Montanaro. “Presidential Campaign TV Ad Spending Crosses $1 Billion Mark in Key States,” NPR, October 13, 2020.
Minority rule.
2016.
Nearly three million more voters made it clear that they preferred former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton over former television personality Donald J. Trump. Yet Secretary Clinton was not permitted to govern. Instead the country endured two impeachment trials, a failed pandemic response, migrant children in cages, rampant incompetence, and the rise of neo-fascism.
2000.
Over a half million more voters preferred former Vice President Al Gore, Jr. over former Texas Governor George W. Bush. Yet Governor Bush received the majority of Electoral College votes that year. Think about the implications — would there have been a 9/11? Would the U.S. have invaded Iraq under false pretenses?
1824, 1876, 1888.
in 1824, no candidate received a majority of Electoral College votes; the election was decided by the House of Representatives, who awarded the contest to John Quincy Adams (even though he had received 45,000 fewer votes than his rival, Andrew Jackson). In 1876, Rutherford B. Hayes received one more Electoral College vote than his rival, Samuel Tilden, despite losing the popular vote by more than a quarter million votes. In 1888, Benjamin Harrison won the majority of Electoral College votes, yet he received one hundred thousand fewer votes than his rival, Grover Cleveland.
The three-fifths compromise.
In the late 18th Century, the populations of the northern and southern states were nearly equal — but one-third of the South’s population was enslaved, and therefore could not vote. Realizing that the South would be at a considerable disadvantage, the three-fifths compromise stipulated that each Black individual would count as three-fifths of a White individual when determining a state’s Congressional delegation. This increased the size of the South’s Congressional delegation by 42 percent.
Image courtesy of National Burial Database of Enslaved Americans.
Partisan, anti-democratic motivations have several opportunities to subvert the will of the people following a Presidential election.
Mid-December.
Under the Electoral College system, voters do not get to directly choose the President/Vice President. Instead, they pick a slate of electors associated with a specific candidate. These electors physically meet (on a defined date in mid-December) in each state capital (and in Washington, D.C.) to cast their votes. Electors pledge to vote for the candidate who won the popular vote in that state.
In 2020, while electors legally convened in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to certify the votes for Joe Biden (who won those states), electors loyal to Donald Trump falsely appointed themselves, and submitted bogus “official” certificates to federal officials.
December/January.
Partisan officials — for example, members of Congress, state attorney generals — can sue to overturn the results of a specific state’s election. This occurred several times following the 2020 Presidential election.
“The Electoral College is a disaster for a democracy.”
January 6.
U.S. law specifies that all certified Electoral College votes be counted during a joint session of Congress (that convenes on January 6), presided over by the Vice President. During the state-by-state count, members of Congress can object to a specific state’s electoral certification. This occurred twice following the 2020 Presidential election.
It was during this process on January 6, 2021, that rioters supporting former President Trump stormed the U.S. Capitol in an attempt to overturn the results of the election. Five people died.